They
think it’s all over. It could be now! Manchester United is currently 12 points
clear at the top of the Premier League and ahead of their rivals, Manchester
City. I believe that United will win the title if City fails to decrease this
lead by half in the five games running up to and including the Manchester Derby
on 6th April.
This Derby game will be at Old Trafford so have no doubt the
United fans will be rubbing the points difference in the City fans faces, just
like City did when they defeated United 6-1 back in October 2011.
This time last season, City was sitting on the top of the
table, five points clear of United but United had a game in hand.
City’s home record was impeccable too having won all 14
league home games at this point of the season, scoring 42 goals and only
conceding six.
This season has been a different story though as they won
nine, drawn three and lost one game at home, scoring 29 and conceding 11.
Their away form has taken a slight hit when compared to last
season too. City’s current away record of winning six, drawing five and losing
two games is a marginal decrease from last season’s record at this point of
winning seven, drawing three and losing three.
However, a lot of fans of the Premier League will say the
main reason for the separation between the two clubs is one man, United’s
summer signing of Robin Van Persie, but I don’t believe this is the case.
United’s home and away record this season is more-or-less
the same as what it was at this point last season.
So if you removed £22.5m Van Persie from the United squad,
would the likes of Wayne Rooney, Javier Hernandez and Danny Welbeck be able to step
up to fill his place?
The answer is clearly yes as shown from how United performed
last season when they didn’t have RVP at all.
Granted, City would definitely be performing better this
season if they were able to persuade RVP to come to them last season.
But they don’t have him and most of their strikers have
failed to match or improve on their goal scoring records from last season.
Sergio Aguero has only scored nine goals this season in the
Premier League. He has a lot of goals to find if he is to match his 23 goals he
scored last season.
Carlos Tevez has scored seven goals this season, improving
on his last season Premier League goal scoring record of four. However, I still
don’t think this is good enough for a striker of Manchester City.
Edin Dzeko is City’s top goal scorer this season with 11
goals, three shy of his tally last season of 14. But it’s a similar situation
as Tevez as I still don’t believe this is good enough.
City’s defence has been better than United’s defence this
season, having only conceded 24 goals compared to United who have conceded 31
goals.
But without a striking force getting the goals, this means a
lot of draws have occurred this season for City, eight in total.
With five games to go before the Manchester Derby on the 6th
April, in my eyes, City need to half the points difference between them and
United if they still want to be in title contention.
It won’t be easy for City, as they have tough games against
Chelsea, Everton and a newly reformed Newcastle side.
United’s run of games before the Manchester Derby seems to
come cross a lot easier, with ties against QPR, Norwich and Reading.
With all this taken into consideration though, United seem
to have the upper hand so I think United will win the title if they stay on
their current form and not allow their point lead ahead of City to decrease.
City’s manager Roberto Mancini recently admitted he feels
his side now has a 10% chance of winning the Premier League and he must make
changes to his squad if he is to make this 10% achievable.
But United’s manager Sir Alex Ferguson is not the type of
manager to admit that the job is done until the final whistle on the last day
of the season.
And he’s right to think so as any City fans will tell you
too, thanks to Aguero’s 95th minute goal on the last day of last
season, anything is possible and nothing should be written off early.
twitter - @ConorJPorter
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